Insights & Education

Commodity Seasonality

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Original research and analysis on seasonal patterns in commodity markets — energy, metals, agriculture, and fertilizers.

✦ LatestAgriculture

Fertilizer Seasonality: Why Fall Is the Only Time to Buy

A 38-year Purdue University study found that fall fertilizer prices were cheaper than spring prices in 36 out of 38 years — a 95% win rate. This article explains the mechanism behind the pattern and the optimal buying windows for all four fertilizer commodities: nitrogen, phosphate, sulfur, and potash.

8 min readJuly 30, 2026

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Industrial

Natural Rubber Seasonality: The Wintering Cycle, Monsoon Disruptions, and China's Tyre Demand

Natural rubber prices follow two distinct seasonal cycles every year — the wintering supply shock and the monsoon disruption — both driven by the biology of the Hevea brasiliensis tree. Understanding these cycles gives traders and industrial buyers a repeatable edge.

7 min readJuly 2, 2026

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Strategy

Seasonal Accumulation: Using Buy Signals to Build Long-Term Commodity Positions

Most seasonal trading guides focus on the short-term trade: buy in February, sell in June, repeat. But there is a second, equally powerful way to use seasonal data — as a disciplined entry framework for building long-term commodity positions. The concept is simple: use seasonal buy signals to time your purchases, then hold through the sell months rather than exiting, allowing compounding and long-term appreciation to do the heavy lifting.

8 min readJune 15, 2025

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Construction

How Lumber Seasonality Works: The Construction Season Effect

Lumber prices follow one of the most structurally intuitive seasonal patterns in all of commodity markets. The residential construction season — which drives the vast majority of softwood lumber demand in North America — creates a repeating annual cycle of accumulation, peak demand, and post-peak softening that has been documented across 30 years of futures data by the Moore Research Center.

7 min readJune 14, 2025

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Education

Jeffrey Hirsch and the Stock Trader's Almanac: The Origins of Seasonal Trading

The systematic study of market seasonality in the United States traces its roots to one man: Yale Hirsch, who in 1966 published the first Stock Trader's Almanac — a spiral-bound reference book that catalogued decades of market data into actionable seasonal patterns. His son Jeffrey Hirsch has continued and expanded this work, making the Almanac the most widely referenced seasonal market guide in the world.

8 min readJune 12, 2025

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Agriculture

The Grain Harvest Cycle: Why Wheat and Soybean Prices Are Predictable

Grain prices follow the harvest cycle with a consistency that has made agricultural commodity trading one of the oldest forms of seasonal investing. The fundamental driver is simple: before harvest, supply is uncertain and prices carry a weather premium. After harvest, supply is known and prices fall under the weight of new crop availability.

6 min readJune 10, 2025

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Agriculture

Why Farmers Should Buy Fertilizer in Fall, Not Spring

One of the most consistent and actionable seasonal patterns in agricultural markets is the fertilizer price cycle. A landmark 38-year study by Purdue University found that fall fertilizer prices were cheaper than spring prices in 36 out of 38 years — a 95% win rate that makes the fall buying window one of the most reliable seasonal opportunities in any commodity market.

7 min readJune 8, 2025

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Precious Metals

Gold's Two Seasonal Windows: January and the Diwali Rally

Gold has two distinct seasonal sweet spots every year — a January rally driven by portfolio rebalancing and a late-summer to fall rally driven by Indian festival demand. Understanding both windows, and the weak period between them, is essential for anyone trading or investing in gold.

6 min readJune 5, 2025

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Energy

How Crude Oil Seasonality Works: The Driving Season Effect

Crude oil is the world's most actively traded commodity, and beneath its daily volatility lies one of the most well-documented seasonal patterns in financial markets. The driving season effect — the annual buildup in gasoline demand from late winter through early summer — creates a recurring price tailwind that has been observed for decades.

7 min readJune 3, 2025

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Education

What Is Commodity Seasonality? A Beginner's Guide

Commodity prices are not random. Beneath the daily noise of geopolitical events and economic data, there exists a layer of predictable, repeating annual patterns driven by weather cycles, harvest schedules, industrial demand rhythms, and cultural events. This is commodity seasonality.

6 min readJune 1, 2025

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Topics Covered

SeasonalityCommoditiesTrading BasicsMarket PatternsCrude OilWTIEnergy TradingDriving SeasonGoldPrecious MetalsDiwaliJanuary EffectFertilizerNitrogenPotashPhosphateFarm ManagementAg EconomicsWheatSoybeansCornGrain MarketsHarvest CycleAg TradingJeffrey HirschStock Trader's AlmanacYale HirschBest Six MonthsJanuary BarometerMarket HistoryLumberRandom Length LumberConstructionHousing MarketMRCILong-Term InvestingAccumulation StrategyDollar Cost AveragingCommodity InvestingBuy and HoldRubberTSR20RSS3WinteringChinaTyre DemandSulfurSeasonal Trading