Historical Buy & Sell Windows
Historical buy and sell windows for 13 commodities across Energy, Metals, Agriculture, Nuclear, and Fertilizers. Based on multi-decade data from the Stock Trader's Almanac (Hirsch), Moore Research Center (MRCI), Purdue University, and Equity Clock. Click any cell for rationale and community notes.
Driven by the U.S. driving season. Refineries ramp up gasoline production Feb–Jun. Post-peak inventory builds create Jul–Nov weakness.
Two seasonal peaks: winter heating (Nov–Feb) and summer cooling (Jul–Aug). Spring and fall shoulder seasons are the weakest. December is the worst month (-13.7% avg).
January is the strongest month (+1.90% avg), driven by Indian wedding season and safe-haven demand. Secondary peak Aug–Oct (Indian festival season). Weakest Mar–Jun.
Tracks gold's seasonal pattern with amplified moves. Strongest Jan–Apr (remarkable historical up movement). Corrects May–Jun. Secondary recovery Jul–Sep.
Driven by Chinese construction and manufacturing cycles. Buy Oct–Apr (Chinese New Year + construction season). Summer slump May–Sep averages -4.19% (Seasonax). Key recession indicator.
Agricultural cycle dominates. Prices peak Jan–Apr (pre-planting uncertainty premium). Lowest at harvest Sep–Oct. Post-harvest lows Nov–Dec are the best buying opportunity.
Winter wheat harvest (Jun–Aug) creates primary sell pressure. Prices peak in May ahead of harvest. Best buying opportunity at August harvest lows. Secondary buy Oct–Nov (winter wheat planting).
Strongest Jan–Mar (South American crop risk + Chinese buying). U.S. harvest Sep–Oct is the weakest period. Post-harvest lows Nov–Dec are the best accumulation window.
Driven by utility nuclear fuel procurement cycles, not consumption. Primary contracting season Sep–Feb. Weakest Apr–Jul (post-contracting lull). 18-month refueling cycles create multi-year patterns.
Urea and anhydrous ammonia prices are driven by natural gas feedstock costs and the Northern Hemisphere planting cycle. Fall (Aug–Oct) is historically 10–20% cheaper than spring. Peak prices occur Mar–May at planting season. Purdue 38-year study (1967–2009) confirms consistent fall discount.
DAP and MAP follow the same planting-season demand cycle as nitrogen. Fall pre-buying (Sep–Nov) captures a consistent discount vs. spring. Spring (Feb–May) is peak price season. Less volatile than nitrogen as phosphate is not directly tied to natural gas feedstock.
Sulfur is a by-product of oil & gas refining and the key feedstock for phosphate fertilizer (via sulfuric acid). Spring and fall are peak demand periods driven by agricultural planting cycles. Summer and winter are the weakest periods. Supply is inversely linked to oil refinery run rates.
Muriate of Potash (MOP/KCl) follows the same planting-season demand cycle but is less volatile than nitrogen as it is not tied to natural gas. Fall pre-buying (Sep–Nov) is the optimal strategy. Spring (Apr–Jun) is peak price season. Dominated by a small number of global producers (Nutrien, Mosaic, Belarusian Potash).